Discussion about this post

User's avatar
JungianTJ's avatar

I found my way here, finally, from ACX Open Thread 353. There, last October, I was skeptical whether we really *know* that exercise benefits health. Could this all be bullsh*t, like perhaps the standard praise for fruit and vegetables? Now I finally found the time to follow it up (a bit). In that ACX comment thread, you linked to your review of Lieberman's book here. And to me specifically you quoted the following passage from the book (also part of the review here):

> "In every study, the largest benefit came from just ninety weekly minutes of exercise, yielding an average 20 percent reduction in the risk of dying. After that, the risk of death drops with increasing doses but less steeply."

So I looked that up now, the referenced paper Wasfy & Baggish 2016, and it turns out the studies he refers to in this passage are all observational only. "To date, there have been no randomized controlled trials designed to examine the impact of PA [physical activity] on mortality." And yet Lieberman writes "came from", and such language is standard for that section in his book, a section which shows no awareness that higher mortality and physical inactivity could easily be both caused by a third factor. That's enough to undermine my trust in his theories. If he discusses the issue elsewhere in the book, your review doesn't mention it.

Speaking of the review, I found the style different, for better or worse, from that of, say, an ACX review. It doesn't seem like an open-ended investigation. In particular, take this passage:

> "Sitting slows the rate we take up fats and sugars in the bloodstream, and whatever isn't taken up will turn into fat. Sitting is usually accompanied by psychosocial stress, and that stress increases cortisol and makes you pack on organ fat. Another way it increases inflammation is [...]"

The point about stress is a confounder! Perhaps it's, not actually the physical non-activity of sitting, but the stress (associated with it for other reasons) that impairs health? That should have gone on the other side of the ledger! But you just pile everything on one side, on the pro-exercise side, and that's true for most of the post.

Meanwhile, the Morris studies you invoked in the ACX thread aren't quite as convincing as I first thought, since presumably people partly self-selected into the different jobs, such as bus driver vs ticket taker, depending to how comfortable their bodies feel with PA.

Of the evidence presented for the health benefits of PA, I find the Danish two-weeks study most convincing. You invoked it to me in the ACX thread (and you also note it here in the Lieberman review), so thanks again for that.

And I should make it clear that in that thread you recommended your Lieberman review to someone else. Not to me, the skeptic, whom a more open-ended investigation would have suited better. Finally, let me also say that I found the writing here good and entertaining --- I'm not surprised that the Substack has been catching on quickly. On this older post I'm the only commenter (as of now) but on newer ones such privilege would be very unusual.

Expand full comment
17 more comments...

No posts